GameTimePicks
Cincinnati (27-24) at St. Louis (30-22)
Johnny Cueto (4-3, 2.53 ERA) tries for his first victory in more than three weeks when he guides the Reds against Kyle Lohse (4-3, 3.98) and the Cardinals as these N.L. Central rivals continue a four-game series at Busch Stadium.
St. Louis bounced back from Monday’s 5-3 loss and evened this series with a 5-2 victory Tuesday to end a two-game slide and improve to 9-5 in its last 14 contests. The Redbirds are on surges of 24-10 at Busch Stadium (6-2 last eight), 6-2 against N.L. Central foes, 8-2 against teams with a winning record and 6-1 on Wednesday.
The Reds have lost four of five overall, seven of their last eight on the road (all against right-handed starters) and five of six against winning teams, but they’re 5-1 in their last six Wednesday outings.
Cincinnati still leads the season series 3-2 against the Cardinals, but the host has won nine of the last 12 clashes dating to last summer. Additionally, the Red are still just 16-37 in their last 53 games in St. Louis.
Cueto has been a workhorse for Cincinnati, pitching exactly seven innings in five consecutive starts and seven of his last eight, while going eight innings in the other outing. He’s also surrendered three earned runs or less in seven of those eight starts, but he hasn’t earned a victory since a 10-3 win at Arizona on May 13. Over his past three starts, Cueto is 0-2 with a 3.86 ERA, including a tough-luck 3-2 loss at Milwaukee on Friday in which the right-hander yielded all three runs on three hits and four walks in seven innings.
Cueto is 3-1 with a 1.87 ERA in five road starts, four of which Cincinnati has won. He also beat the Cardinals 6-4 at home on May 8, allowing one run on five hits in seven innings. As a rookie last season, though, Cueto went 0-2 with a 16.20 ERA in two starts versus St. Louis, including a 7-2 loss at Busch Stadium in which he got tagged for all seven runs (six earned) in 1 2/3 innings.
Lohse has been sidelined with a forearm injury since May 23, when he tossed a complete-game, four-hit shutout against the Royals, winning 5-0 at home. That sterling performance came after a three-start slump in which Lohse went 0-3 with a 10.67 ERA. The veteran right-hander is 4-2 with a 3.13 ERA at Busch Stadium this season, but St. Louis is 2-5 in his last seven starts overall (2-2 at home). Also, he’s 1-3 with a 6.26 ERA in five starts under the lights, compared with 3-0 with a 1.67 ERA in four daytime outings.
Lohse got rocked in Cincinnati on May 9, giving up a season-high seven runs on nine hits in six innings of an 8-3 setback. He’s now 1-2 with a 5.84 ERA in four career starts against the Reds.
The under is 19-7-1 in Cueto’s last 27 starts overall, 13-3-1 in his last 17 on the highway and 5-1 in his last six against Central Division foes. However, with Lohse pitching, the over is on streaks of 7-4 overall and 4-1 versus the N.L. Central.
St. Louis carries “under” streaks of 11-3 overall, 8-0 at home, 7-1 versus divisional rivals, 5-0-1 on Wednesday and 8-1 against right-handed starters. Meanwhile, the under is 16-6-1 in the Reds’ last 23 road games, 5-1 in their last six against divisional foes. Finally, the first two games in this series have stayed low, ending a seven-game “over” streak in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (30-22) at Detroit (28-22)
Josh Beckett (5-2, 4.60) looks to continue his resurgence when he leads the Red Sox against the Tigers and Armando Galarraga (3-5, 5.50) in the middle game of a three-game series at Comerica Park.
Boston scored a 5-1 victory in Tuesday’s series opener, the team’s second consecutive win as it improved to 4-4 on a current 10-game road trip. Still, the Red Sox have been average at best lately, going 5-6 in their last 11 contests and 4-7 in their past 11 against right-handed starters. On the bright side, Terry Francona’s squad enjoys positive runs of 15-6 against winning teams, 25-11 when playing on grass and 48-20 against the A.L. Central.
The Tigers are struggling offensively, producing four runs or fewer in nine of their last 12 games. Still, Detroit is on surges of 11-6 overall, 10-4 at Comerica Park, 5-1 against teams with a winning record, 14-6 on grass and 5-2 on Wednesday.
The Red Sox are 6-2 against Detroit since the beginning of last season, taking four of the last five meetings at Comerica Park. Still, the home team 10-6 in the last 16 head-to-head clashes.
Becket has delivered five consecutive quality starts (2.38 ERA), with Boston winning four of those five contests. In Thursday’s 3-1 victory at Minnesota, Beckett went seven innings and gave up the one run (a solo homer) on three hits and four walks while striking out eight. The veteran right-hander is 3-2 with a 4.99 ERA in five road starts, but 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA in his last three as a visitor. The Red Sox are 25-12 in Beckett’s last 37 on the highway and 7-1 in his last eight when facing A.L. Central opponents.
Galarraga ended a string of five consecutive poor starts (0-4, 9.93 ERA) with a decent effort on Thursday at Baltimore, as he gave up three runs on 10 hits over seven innings. However, it wasn’t enough to keep Galarraga from losing his fifth straight game, as Detroit fell 5-1. In five starts at Comerica this season, the right-hander is 2-2 with a 5.55 ERA.
Beckett has faced Detroit just twice in his career, going 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA. Meanwhile, Galarraga got blasted in his only career start against the Red Sox last May, surrendering five runs on seven hits in 5 1/3 innings, but his offense bailed him out in a 10-9 home win.
The under is on an 11-4-2 roll in this rivalry. Additionally, Boston carries “under” streaks of 12-4 overall (6-1 last seven, all on the road, 5-0 when facing right-handed starters, 10-3-1 when playing on grass and 4-0 behind Beckett. Finally, the “under” for the Tigers is on runs of 11-3 overall, 7-0 at home, 10-3 against righty starters, 8-3 versus the A.L. East and 4-1 with Galarraga on the hill.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER
Cincinnati (27-24) at St. Louis (30-22)
Johnny Cueto (4-3, 2.53 ERA) tries for his first victory in more than three weeks when he guides the Reds against Kyle Lohse (4-3, 3.98) and the Cardinals as these N.L. Central rivals continue a four-game series at Busch Stadium.
St. Louis bounced back from Monday’s 5-3 loss and evened this series with a 5-2 victory Tuesday to end a two-game slide and improve to 9-5 in its last 14 contests. The Redbirds are on surges of 24-10 at Busch Stadium (6-2 last eight), 6-2 against N.L. Central foes, 8-2 against teams with a winning record and 6-1 on Wednesday.
The Reds have lost four of five overall, seven of their last eight on the road (all against right-handed starters) and five of six against winning teams, but they’re 5-1 in their last six Wednesday outings.
Cincinnati still leads the season series 3-2 against the Cardinals, but the host has won nine of the last 12 clashes dating to last summer. Additionally, the Red are still just 16-37 in their last 53 games in St. Louis.
Cueto has been a workhorse for Cincinnati, pitching exactly seven innings in five consecutive starts and seven of his last eight, while going eight innings in the other outing. He’s also surrendered three earned runs or less in seven of those eight starts, but he hasn’t earned a victory since a 10-3 win at Arizona on May 13. Over his past three starts, Cueto is 0-2 with a 3.86 ERA, including a tough-luck 3-2 loss at Milwaukee on Friday in which the right-hander yielded all three runs on three hits and four walks in seven innings.
Cueto is 3-1 with a 1.87 ERA in five road starts, four of which Cincinnati has won. He also beat the Cardinals 6-4 at home on May 8, allowing one run on five hits in seven innings. As a rookie last season, though, Cueto went 0-2 with a 16.20 ERA in two starts versus St. Louis, including a 7-2 loss at Busch Stadium in which he got tagged for all seven runs (six earned) in 1 2/3 innings.
Lohse has been sidelined with a forearm injury since May 23, when he tossed a complete-game, four-hit shutout against the Royals, winning 5-0 at home. That sterling performance came after a three-start slump in which Lohse went 0-3 with a 10.67 ERA. The veteran right-hander is 4-2 with a 3.13 ERA at Busch Stadium this season, but St. Louis is 2-5 in his last seven starts overall (2-2 at home). Also, he’s 1-3 with a 6.26 ERA in five starts under the lights, compared with 3-0 with a 1.67 ERA in four daytime outings.
Lohse got rocked in Cincinnati on May 9, giving up a season-high seven runs on nine hits in six innings of an 8-3 setback. He’s now 1-2 with a 5.84 ERA in four career starts against the Reds.
The under is 19-7-1 in Cueto’s last 27 starts overall, 13-3-1 in his last 17 on the highway and 5-1 in his last six against Central Division foes. However, with Lohse pitching, the over is on streaks of 7-4 overall and 4-1 versus the N.L. Central.
St. Louis carries “under” streaks of 11-3 overall, 8-0 at home, 7-1 versus divisional rivals, 5-0-1 on Wednesday and 8-1 against right-handed starters. Meanwhile, the under is 16-6-1 in the Reds’ last 23 road games, 5-1 in their last six against divisional foes. Finally, the first two games in this series have stayed low, ending a seven-game “over” streak in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (30-22) at Detroit (28-22)
Josh Beckett (5-2, 4.60) looks to continue his resurgence when he leads the Red Sox against the Tigers and Armando Galarraga (3-5, 5.50) in the middle game of a three-game series at Comerica Park.
Boston scored a 5-1 victory in Tuesday’s series opener, the team’s second consecutive win as it improved to 4-4 on a current 10-game road trip. Still, the Red Sox have been average at best lately, going 5-6 in their last 11 contests and 4-7 in their past 11 against right-handed starters. On the bright side, Terry Francona’s squad enjoys positive runs of 15-6 against winning teams, 25-11 when playing on grass and 48-20 against the A.L. Central.
The Tigers are struggling offensively, producing four runs or fewer in nine of their last 12 games. Still, Detroit is on surges of 11-6 overall, 10-4 at Comerica Park, 5-1 against teams with a winning record, 14-6 on grass and 5-2 on Wednesday.
The Red Sox are 6-2 against Detroit since the beginning of last season, taking four of the last five meetings at Comerica Park. Still, the home team 10-6 in the last 16 head-to-head clashes.
Becket has delivered five consecutive quality starts (2.38 ERA), with Boston winning four of those five contests. In Thursday’s 3-1 victory at Minnesota, Beckett went seven innings and gave up the one run (a solo homer) on three hits and four walks while striking out eight. The veteran right-hander is 3-2 with a 4.99 ERA in five road starts, but 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA in his last three as a visitor. The Red Sox are 25-12 in Beckett’s last 37 on the highway and 7-1 in his last eight when facing A.L. Central opponents.
Galarraga ended a string of five consecutive poor starts (0-4, 9.93 ERA) with a decent effort on Thursday at Baltimore, as he gave up three runs on 10 hits over seven innings. However, it wasn’t enough to keep Galarraga from losing his fifth straight game, as Detroit fell 5-1. In five starts at Comerica this season, the right-hander is 2-2 with a 5.55 ERA.
Beckett has faced Detroit just twice in his career, going 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA. Meanwhile, Galarraga got blasted in his only career start against the Red Sox last May, surrendering five runs on seven hits in 5 1/3 innings, but his offense bailed him out in a 10-9 home win.
The under is on an 11-4-2 roll in this rivalry. Additionally, Boston carries “under” streaks of 12-4 overall (6-1 last seven, all on the road, 5-0 when facing right-handed starters, 10-3-1 when playing on grass and 4-0 behind Beckett. Finally, the “under” for the Tigers is on runs of 11-3 overall, 7-0 at home, 10-3 against righty starters, 8-3 versus the A.L. East and 4-1 with Galarraga on the hill.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER
MLB's Best Home Betting Trends
By CHRIS BERNUCCA
When you go to the ballpark, do you "root, root, root for the home team"?
Root harder. It's not working.
Through Monday, home baseball teams have won 55.6 percent of their games (423-337). Although that figure may not seem high, it is actually up more than three percentage points from last year's mark of 52.3.
But those are just the straight up numbers. Where home teams are really not performing in 2009 is on the runline. Thus far, home teams are just 351-409 against the spread for a paltry percentage of 46.25.
In other words, you could pick nine random games each night, get behind the road team and claim five winners.
Home favorites are even worse at 224-325, clicking at a percentage of just 40.80. The overall performance by home teams ATS is greatly enhanced by the showing thus far by home underdogs, who are at 127-83.
Two months into the season, there appears to be an emerging trend: Grab the underdog. When you combine the home underdog and road underdog totals, you get a win-loss mark of 452-307 for a percentage of 59.55.
That ratio at the favorable prices that accompany underdogs has made trend players rich through April and May, although it won't necessarily continue through the summer months.
And despite the heavy tilt toward underdogs in home parks, there are still strong favorite plays out there. Here are the top five home team trends in 2009:
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are doing their best to buck the trend all by themselves. They own a SU mark of 18-6 at Dodger Stadium - the best in the major leagues - and have returned $901. Furthermore, LA is 23-4 in its last 27 games as a home favorite with a price ranging from -110 to -150.
Even without suspended Manny Ramirez's loud bat, the Dodgers are putting up some crooked numbers at Chavez Ravine. The over is 10-3-2 in the last 15 games at Dodger Stadium.
2. Washington Nationals
How bad are the Nationals? Their 16-36 mark is more than 100 percentage
points lower than baseball's next-worst team. That includes a 7-16 record at home - and four of those wins have come with Shairon Martis on the hill.
Remember, these are the top home trends, not the top home teams. And one of the top home trends this season is to bet against Washington in its home park, where it is still occasionally priced as a favorite.
3. San Diego Padres
Not much was expected of the Padres this season, but thus far they have proved the prognosticators wrong as they have hovered around .500 on the strength of a sparkling 17-7 record at home. No team has returned more money as a home team this season than the $974 produced by the Padres.
Totals players will like this trend: The under is 38-17 in San Diego's last 55 games as a favorite in spacious Petco Park.
4. Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays are the only team besides the Padres and Dodgers that has returned more than $900 at home to date, courtesy of their 18-7 mark at Rogers Centre. And keep in mind that Toronto has been favored in all but two home games this season.
When Toronto got off to its quick start, skeptics pointed to an easy early schedule - a notion reinforced by the Blue Jays dropping two of three at home when the New York Yankees visited from May 12-14. But after an awful 0-9 road trip, Toronto returned home to take two of three from Boston.
5. San Francisco Giants
Yes, another team from the National League West, the division with the biggest home seesaw. Driven by the 1-2 pitching punch of Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, the Giants are 18-9 at AT&T Park and have returned $749 in those games.
Just as strong a trend has been San Francisco's performance as a favorite at home, bucking the league-wide season trend by going 15-7 at the higher price.
By CHRIS BERNUCCA
When you go to the ballpark, do you "root, root, root for the home team"?
Root harder. It's not working.
Through Monday, home baseball teams have won 55.6 percent of their games (423-337). Although that figure may not seem high, it is actually up more than three percentage points from last year's mark of 52.3.
But those are just the straight up numbers. Where home teams are really not performing in 2009 is on the runline. Thus far, home teams are just 351-409 against the spread for a paltry percentage of 46.25.
In other words, you could pick nine random games each night, get behind the road team and claim five winners.
Home favorites are even worse at 224-325, clicking at a percentage of just 40.80. The overall performance by home teams ATS is greatly enhanced by the showing thus far by home underdogs, who are at 127-83.
Two months into the season, there appears to be an emerging trend: Grab the underdog. When you combine the home underdog and road underdog totals, you get a win-loss mark of 452-307 for a percentage of 59.55.
That ratio at the favorable prices that accompany underdogs has made trend players rich through April and May, although it won't necessarily continue through the summer months.
And despite the heavy tilt toward underdogs in home parks, there are still strong favorite plays out there. Here are the top five home team trends in 2009:
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are doing their best to buck the trend all by themselves. They own a SU mark of 18-6 at Dodger Stadium - the best in the major leagues - and have returned $901. Furthermore, LA is 23-4 in its last 27 games as a home favorite with a price ranging from -110 to -150.
Even without suspended Manny Ramirez's loud bat, the Dodgers are putting up some crooked numbers at Chavez Ravine. The over is 10-3-2 in the last 15 games at Dodger Stadium.
2. Washington Nationals
How bad are the Nationals? Their 16-36 mark is more than 100 percentage
points lower than baseball's next-worst team. That includes a 7-16 record at home - and four of those wins have come with Shairon Martis on the hill.
Remember, these are the top home trends, not the top home teams. And one of the top home trends this season is to bet against Washington in its home park, where it is still occasionally priced as a favorite.
3. San Diego Padres
Not much was expected of the Padres this season, but thus far they have proved the prognosticators wrong as they have hovered around .500 on the strength of a sparkling 17-7 record at home. No team has returned more money as a home team this season than the $974 produced by the Padres.
Totals players will like this trend: The under is 38-17 in San Diego's last 55 games as a favorite in spacious Petco Park.
4. Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays are the only team besides the Padres and Dodgers that has returned more than $900 at home to date, courtesy of their 18-7 mark at Rogers Centre. And keep in mind that Toronto has been favored in all but two home games this season.
When Toronto got off to its quick start, skeptics pointed to an easy early schedule - a notion reinforced by the Blue Jays dropping two of three at home when the New York Yankees visited from May 12-14. But after an awful 0-9 road trip, Toronto returned home to take two of three from Boston.
5. San Francisco Giants
Yes, another team from the National League West, the division with the biggest home seesaw. Driven by the 1-2 pitching punch of Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, the Giants are 18-9 at AT&T Park and have returned $749 in those games.
Just as strong a trend has been San Francisco's performance as a favorite at home, bucking the league-wide season trend by going 15-7 at the higher price.
Wednesday's Tip Sheet
By Judd Hall
Could we see the last 300-game winner ever on Wednesday night? That’s a distinct possibility as San Francisco’s Randy Johnson takes the mound on the road against the Nationals.
The Big Unit’s history making start is just one of 13 games on baseball’s slate for hump day. Let’s check out a couple of games tonight and try to get some winners.
Red Sox at Tigers – 7:05 p.m. EDT on ESPN
Every team is going to have a slump at one point or another during the season. Boston (29-22, +190) looks like it’s going through its slump right now by losing four of its last six games. The Red Sox now find themselves in spot that they’re not accustomed to anymore, sitting a game behind the Yanks in the American League East.
Perhaps the BoSox should consider themselves lucky for only being a game out of first place. After all, they’re in the middle of the pack in runs per game (5.2) and home runs (61). And Boston has scored just 27 runs during its first seven matches of this 10-game road trip.
The Red Sox will turn the ball over to Josh Beckett (5-2, 4.60 ERA) in Game 2 of their series with the Tigers. Boston tends to perform better when Beckett is on the mound, as evidenced by a 7-3 record during the 2009 campaign.
Detroit (28-21, +592) finds itself sitting atop the AL Central thanks in large part to some fantastic starting pitching. They currently lead the league with an earned run average of 3.84 and only two other rotations in the Junior Circuit have more strikeouts than the 240 the Tigers have registered this year. That’s not bad when you consider that they’re without Jeremy Bonderman, who can’t evade the injury bug.
Armando Galarraga (3-5, 5.50 ERA) gets the starting nod from the Tigers for Wednesday. Redemption is no doubt on his mind as Galarraga is 0-5 in his last six starts and the team itself has gone 1-5. Things do appear to be looking up for Detroit’s No. 2 pitcher as he allowed three earned runs on ten hits in seven innings of work in a 5-1 road loss to the Orioles on May 28.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants have installed the Red Sox as $1.55 road favorites (risk $155 to win $100) with a total of 9 ½.
If you’d rather play totals in this game, then look at the ‘under’ before making a wager. Galarraga has seen the ‘under’ go 7-3 in his starts. And Beckett’s last four starts have all went ‘under’ the total.
Giants at Nationals – 7:05 p.m. EDT
LVSC has made Washington a $1.20 home “chalk” with a total of nine flat.
San Francisco (25-24, +54) sits just above .500 as they ride a 4-1 record in its last five games, with two of the four wins coming at home against the Cardinals. Now the Giants find themselves embarking on the first of their three 10-game road trips this season.
Things haven’t always gone smoothly for the Giants when travelling away from AT&T Park in 2009 as they’re just 7-15 for the year. After this series they’ll head to Miami for a four-game set with the Marlins and travel back west for a three-gamer against the D-Backs.
It’s hard to think that a team is already resigned to their fate by the start of June, but that appears to be the case with the Nationals. Washington (13-36, -2,146) owns the worst record in Major League Baseball and fading them has turned them into a virtual ATM machine for the betting public. They’ve lost six consecutive contests and 15 of its last 17 games.
Like I mentioned earlier, Randy Johnson (4-4, 5.71 ERA) gets the starting nod with 299 career wins. He’s lost an MPH or three on his fastball, but Johnson has performed admirably as the Giants’ No. 2 starter. He hasn’t done well on the road this year as evidenced by a 0-2 record and bloated earned run average of 8.50.
The Nats are putting their faith in Jordan Zimmerman (2-2, 6.07 ERA) to help turn around their fortunes. That faith might be a tad misplaced since Washington is 1-5 in his last six starts. Zimmerman himself is 0-2 with a 7.37 ERA for the month of May.
As bad as his numbers might look for the last month, Zimmerman was the victim of some poor fielding behind him. He did rather well when just focusing on the batter as evidenced by a strikeout-to-walk ratio that is nearly at 4:1.
For the year the Nationals have seen the ‘over’ go 25-21-3 for the season and 12-10-1 at home. However, Washington has seen ‘under’ cash in at an 8-3 clip over its past 11 matches.
San Francisco has also watched the ‘over’ go 25-21-3 during the 2009 campaign. That includes a 5-2 run in its last seven games. But the Giants saw the ‘under’ post a 5-1 mark in their last road trip.
Royals at Rays – 7:08 p.m. EDT
Most betting shops have made the Rays $1.50 home favorites for this matchup with the total rolling in at 9 ½.
If you were to have asked Tampa Bay (25-28, -772) where it would be at this point of the year, fourth place in the AL East would not have been its answer. Yet that is exactly where the Rays find themselves six games behind the Yankees in baseball’s toughest division.
The Rays are mired in a 2-6 slump which includes a horrid four-game sweep to Cleveland. While much has been made of the problems of Tampa Bay’s bullpen, its starting rotation has been a total disappointment by ranking 11th in the AL with 5.00 ERA.
Kansas City (23-27, -380) was supposed to be this year’s version of the Rays and it looked that way as they jumped out to an 18-11 start. Since then, the Royals have stumbled to a 5-16 mark, including a recent four-game skid.
The Royals are heading out on a nine-game trek that will see them heading out to Toronto and Cleveland after this three-game set in Tropicana Field. Kansas City needs to make something happen on this road trip as they’re 5 ½ games behind the Tigers in the AL Central. It’s easier said than done when you consider that KC is 8-12 on the road in 2009.
If there is anything that Kansas City can rely on it’s the inconsistency of the Rays. They have not hit as well as they thought after adding Pat Burrell (.250, 1 HR, 17 RBI) to the lineup to go along with the aforementioned pitching issues. Those problems have taken their toll at what was once a formidable fortress, The Trop. Tampa Bay had the best home record in baseball at 57-24 en route to the 2008 AL Pennant. This year, the Rays are just 13-11 at Tropicana Field.
The Royals give the starting nod to Brian Bannister (4-2, 3.64 ERA) for this showdown. It isn’t a stretch to think that KC will come out on top here as they’re 6-2 for the season when Bannister pitches.
While Bannister has given Kansas City some solid efforts this year, the scores have stayed high recently. The ‘over’ is on a 4-2 run when Bannister takes the mound.
Tampa Bay will entrust Jeff Niemann (4-4, 4.44 ERA) with the starting duties. Niemann pitched only three innings in his last start on May 28 in Cleveland thanks to a sizeable rain delay. While he gave up just one earned run on five hits, he still took the “L” in the 2-1 decision.
Outside of that rain delay game that he just tossed in, Niemann has been a best friend to ‘over’ bettors. Totals have been eclipsed in six of his last eight starts.
It’s going to be interesting to see how the Royals handle Niemann as they’re dead last in the AL with a .247 batting average against right-handed pitching.
This has been a series that’s been dominated by the home team going 12-8 dating back to 2006.
The ‘under’ has been a solid wager as it cashed tickets in five of the last seven head-to-head meetings.
vegasinsider
By Judd Hall
Could we see the last 300-game winner ever on Wednesday night? That’s a distinct possibility as San Francisco’s Randy Johnson takes the mound on the road against the Nationals.
The Big Unit’s history making start is just one of 13 games on baseball’s slate for hump day. Let’s check out a couple of games tonight and try to get some winners.
Red Sox at Tigers – 7:05 p.m. EDT on ESPN
Every team is going to have a slump at one point or another during the season. Boston (29-22, +190) looks like it’s going through its slump right now by losing four of its last six games. The Red Sox now find themselves in spot that they’re not accustomed to anymore, sitting a game behind the Yanks in the American League East.
Perhaps the BoSox should consider themselves lucky for only being a game out of first place. After all, they’re in the middle of the pack in runs per game (5.2) and home runs (61). And Boston has scored just 27 runs during its first seven matches of this 10-game road trip.
The Red Sox will turn the ball over to Josh Beckett (5-2, 4.60 ERA) in Game 2 of their series with the Tigers. Boston tends to perform better when Beckett is on the mound, as evidenced by a 7-3 record during the 2009 campaign.
Detroit (28-21, +592) finds itself sitting atop the AL Central thanks in large part to some fantastic starting pitching. They currently lead the league with an earned run average of 3.84 and only two other rotations in the Junior Circuit have more strikeouts than the 240 the Tigers have registered this year. That’s not bad when you consider that they’re without Jeremy Bonderman, who can’t evade the injury bug.
Armando Galarraga (3-5, 5.50 ERA) gets the starting nod from the Tigers for Wednesday. Redemption is no doubt on his mind as Galarraga is 0-5 in his last six starts and the team itself has gone 1-5. Things do appear to be looking up for Detroit’s No. 2 pitcher as he allowed three earned runs on ten hits in seven innings of work in a 5-1 road loss to the Orioles on May 28.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants have installed the Red Sox as $1.55 road favorites (risk $155 to win $100) with a total of 9 ½.
If you’d rather play totals in this game, then look at the ‘under’ before making a wager. Galarraga has seen the ‘under’ go 7-3 in his starts. And Beckett’s last four starts have all went ‘under’ the total.
Giants at Nationals – 7:05 p.m. EDT
LVSC has made Washington a $1.20 home “chalk” with a total of nine flat.
San Francisco (25-24, +54) sits just above .500 as they ride a 4-1 record in its last five games, with two of the four wins coming at home against the Cardinals. Now the Giants find themselves embarking on the first of their three 10-game road trips this season.
Things haven’t always gone smoothly for the Giants when travelling away from AT&T Park in 2009 as they’re just 7-15 for the year. After this series they’ll head to Miami for a four-game set with the Marlins and travel back west for a three-gamer against the D-Backs.
It’s hard to think that a team is already resigned to their fate by the start of June, but that appears to be the case with the Nationals. Washington (13-36, -2,146) owns the worst record in Major League Baseball and fading them has turned them into a virtual ATM machine for the betting public. They’ve lost six consecutive contests and 15 of its last 17 games.
Like I mentioned earlier, Randy Johnson (4-4, 5.71 ERA) gets the starting nod with 299 career wins. He’s lost an MPH or three on his fastball, but Johnson has performed admirably as the Giants’ No. 2 starter. He hasn’t done well on the road this year as evidenced by a 0-2 record and bloated earned run average of 8.50.
The Nats are putting their faith in Jordan Zimmerman (2-2, 6.07 ERA) to help turn around their fortunes. That faith might be a tad misplaced since Washington is 1-5 in his last six starts. Zimmerman himself is 0-2 with a 7.37 ERA for the month of May.
As bad as his numbers might look for the last month, Zimmerman was the victim of some poor fielding behind him. He did rather well when just focusing on the batter as evidenced by a strikeout-to-walk ratio that is nearly at 4:1.
For the year the Nationals have seen the ‘over’ go 25-21-3 for the season and 12-10-1 at home. However, Washington has seen ‘under’ cash in at an 8-3 clip over its past 11 matches.
San Francisco has also watched the ‘over’ go 25-21-3 during the 2009 campaign. That includes a 5-2 run in its last seven games. But the Giants saw the ‘under’ post a 5-1 mark in their last road trip.
Royals at Rays – 7:08 p.m. EDT
Most betting shops have made the Rays $1.50 home favorites for this matchup with the total rolling in at 9 ½.
If you were to have asked Tampa Bay (25-28, -772) where it would be at this point of the year, fourth place in the AL East would not have been its answer. Yet that is exactly where the Rays find themselves six games behind the Yankees in baseball’s toughest division.
The Rays are mired in a 2-6 slump which includes a horrid four-game sweep to Cleveland. While much has been made of the problems of Tampa Bay’s bullpen, its starting rotation has been a total disappointment by ranking 11th in the AL with 5.00 ERA.
Kansas City (23-27, -380) was supposed to be this year’s version of the Rays and it looked that way as they jumped out to an 18-11 start. Since then, the Royals have stumbled to a 5-16 mark, including a recent four-game skid.
The Royals are heading out on a nine-game trek that will see them heading out to Toronto and Cleveland after this three-game set in Tropicana Field. Kansas City needs to make something happen on this road trip as they’re 5 ½ games behind the Tigers in the AL Central. It’s easier said than done when you consider that KC is 8-12 on the road in 2009.
If there is anything that Kansas City can rely on it’s the inconsistency of the Rays. They have not hit as well as they thought after adding Pat Burrell (.250, 1 HR, 17 RBI) to the lineup to go along with the aforementioned pitching issues. Those problems have taken their toll at what was once a formidable fortress, The Trop. Tampa Bay had the best home record in baseball at 57-24 en route to the 2008 AL Pennant. This year, the Rays are just 13-11 at Tropicana Field.
The Royals give the starting nod to Brian Bannister (4-2, 3.64 ERA) for this showdown. It isn’t a stretch to think that KC will come out on top here as they’re 6-2 for the season when Bannister pitches.
While Bannister has given Kansas City some solid efforts this year, the scores have stayed high recently. The ‘over’ is on a 4-2 run when Bannister takes the mound.
Tampa Bay will entrust Jeff Niemann (4-4, 4.44 ERA) with the starting duties. Niemann pitched only three innings in his last start on May 28 in Cleveland thanks to a sizeable rain delay. While he gave up just one earned run on five hits, he still took the “L” in the 2-1 decision.
Outside of that rain delay game that he just tossed in, Niemann has been a best friend to ‘over’ bettors. Totals have been eclipsed in six of his last eight starts.
It’s going to be interesting to see how the Royals handle Niemann as they’re dead last in the AL with a .247 batting average against right-handed pitching.
This has been a series that’s been dominated by the home team going 12-8 dating back to 2006.
The ‘under’ has been a solid wager as it cashed tickets in five of the last seven head-to-head meetings.
vegasinsider
Teddy's last few days haven't been good though.
Yeah after a couple bad days he was like, hell I'm just gonna doing what I've done for multiple years and stop rating my games. Actually why don't i just throw darts. The reason there are no units posted is because Ferringo contacted the forum where his plays are originally posted and asked them to stopped posting the units. Therefore the units are not included. Here they are for you though:I am guessing Ferringo is getting his azz kicked which is why he stopped rating his games?
2-Unit Play. Take #912 St. Louis (-125)
2-Unit Play. Take #917 Boston (-150)
2-Unit Play. Take #928 Chicago White Sox (-130)
2-Unit Play. Take #916 L.A. Dodgers (-1.5, +105)
1-Unit Play. Take #905 Milwaukee (-105)
2.5-Unit Play. Take ?Under? 9.0 Boston at Detroit
2-Unit Play. Take ?Under? 8.5 Cleveland at Minnesota
1.5-Unit Play. Take ?Under? 8.0 Cincinnati at St. Louis
1-Unit Play. Take ?Under? 9.0 Kansas City at Tampa Bay
1-Unit Play. Take ?Under? 9.5 Milwaukee at Florida
1-Unit Play. Take ?Under? 8.0 Arizona at L.A. Dodgers
1-Unit Play. Take ?Under? 8.5 Oakland at Chicago White Sox
